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伤后炎症免疫指标动态变化及其对严重烧伤患者21 d死亡风险预测价值的前瞻性研究

娄家祺,  李吉良,  崔胜勇,  黄能,  晋国营,  徐思达,  虞耀华,  徐沛,  蒋静,  潘艳艳,  乐欣,  范友芬

娄家祺, 李吉良, 崔胜勇, 等. 伤后炎症免疫指标动态变化及其对严重烧伤患者21 d死亡风险预测价值的前瞻性研究[J]. 中华烧伤与创面修复杂志, 2026, 42(11): 1-10. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20251121-00482.
引用本文: 娄家祺, 李吉良, 崔胜勇, 等. 伤后炎症免疫指标动态变化及其对严重烧伤患者21 d死亡风险预测价值的前瞻性研究[J]. 中华烧伤与创面修复杂志, 2026, 42(11): 1-10. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20251121-00482.
Lou Jiaqi,Li Jiliang,Cui Shengyong,et al.A prospective study on the dynamic changes of inflammatory and immune indicators after injury and their predictive value for 21-day mortality risk in patients with severe burns[J].Chin J Burns Wounds,2026,42(11):1-10.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20251121-00482.
Citation: Lou Jiaqi,Li Jiliang,Cui Shengyong,et al.A prospective study on the dynamic changes of inflammatory and immune indicators after injury and their predictive value for 21-day mortality risk in patients with severe burns[J].Chin J Burns Wounds,2026,42(11):1-10.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20251121-00482.

伤后炎症免疫指标动态变化及其对严重烧伤患者21 d死亡风险预测价值的前瞻性研究

doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20251121-00482
基金项目: 

浙江省“小而强”临床创新团队项目 CXTD202502004

浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目 2021KY1004, 2022KY1134, 2023RC081, 2025KY1395

浙江省教育厅一般科研项目 Y202456684

宁波市医疗卫生高端团队重大攻坚项目计划 2023030615

宁波市医学重点学科建设项目 2022-F17

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    范友芬,Email:13906683613@163.com

A prospective study on the dynamic changes of inflammatory and immune indicators after injury and their predictive value for 21-day mortality risk in patients with severe burns

Funds: 

Zhejiang Clinovation Pride CXTD202502004

Medical Scientific Reasearch Foundation of Zhejiang Province 2021KY1004, 2022KY1134, 2023RC081, 2025KY1395

2024 General Scientific Research Project of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Education Y202456684

Ningbo Top Medical and Health Research Program 2023030615

Project of NINGBO Leading Medical & Health Discipline 2022-F17

More Information
  • 摘要:   目的  探讨严重烧伤患者伤后炎症免疫指标动态变化及其对21 d死亡风险预测价值。  方法  本研究为前瞻性队列研究。2018年1月—2024年12月,宁波市第二医院烧伤科收治760例符合入选标准的严重烧伤患者。以伤后21 d结局为依据,将患者分为死亡组(139例,男106例、女33例,年龄18~78岁)和存活组(621例,男467例、女154例,年龄18~78岁)。统计两组患者临床资料(如性别、年龄、烧伤指数等),并于伤后1、3、7、14、21 d监测IL-6及CD4⁺/CD8⁺比值;同时计算伤后7 d IL-6、CD4⁺/CD8⁺比值与伤后1 d对应值的差值,即ΔIL-6及Δ(CD4⁺/CD8⁺)比值。分析患者伤后IL-6及CD4+/CD8+比值的纵向变化轨迹(样本数为760)。构建基线Cox比例风险回归模型(以下简称Cox模型)分析烧伤指数及伤后1 d的IL-6、CD4+/CD8+比值等与21 d死亡风险的独立关联性(样本数为753),构建动态Cox模型分析烧伤指数及Δ(CD4+/CD8+)比值等与21 d死亡风险的独立关联性(样本数为746)。采用受试者操作特征曲线(ROC)评估伤后7 d IL-6水平、ΔIL-6、Δ(CD4⁺/CD8⁺)比值及烧伤指数对21 d死亡风险的预测价值,并记录Δ(CD4+/CD8+)的最佳截断值。根据Δ(CD4⁺/CD8⁺)比值是否高于截断值,将患者分为升高组(男363例、女118例,年龄18~78岁)和降低组(男207例、女68例,年龄18~78岁)。绘制前述2组患者的Kaplan-Meier生存曲线并进行比较。采用时间依赖ROC分析,比较基于伤后7 d IL-6、ΔIL-6及Δ(CD4⁺/CD8⁺)比值分别构建的Cox模型(样本数分别为760、746、746),以及基线Cox模型与动态Cox模型,对患者伤后7、14、20 d死亡风险的预测能力。  结果  患者IL-6水平随伤后时间呈下降趋势(估计值为-4.52,标准误为0.10,t=-45.61,P<0.05),死亡组患者IL-6水平高于存活组(估计值为35.64,标准误为4.86,t=7.33,P<0.05),存活组与死亡组患者IL-6水平的纵向变化轨迹比较,差异有统计学意义(估计值为-0.879,标准误为0.23,t=-3.78,P<0.05);患者CD4+/CD8+比值随伤后时间呈升高趋势(估计值为0.02,标准误为<0.01,t=21.48,P<0.05),死亡组患者CD4+/CD8+比值低于存活组(估计值为-0.11,标准误为0.03,t=-4.04,P<0.05),两组患者CD4+/CD8+比值的纵向变化轨迹比较,差异有统计学意义(估计值为<0.01,标准误为<0.01,t=3.64,P<0.05)。基线Cox模型分析结果显示,烧伤指数为21 d死亡风险的独立预测因素(P<0.05),伤后1 d的IL-6、CD4+/CD8+比值为21 d死亡风险的潜在独立预测因素(P值分别为0.053、0.070)。动态Cox模型分析结果显示,烧伤指数为21 d死亡风险的独立预测因素(P<0.05),Δ(CD4+/CD8+)比值为21 d死亡风险的潜在独立预测因素(P=0.058)。伤后7 d IL-6、Δ(CD4+/CD8+)比值、ΔIL-6、及烧伤指数预测21 d死亡风险的AUC分别为0.66(95%CI 0.61~0.70)、0.58(95%CI 0.54~0.63)、0.55(95%CI 0.50~0.61)、0.62(95%CI 0.57~0.68)。Δ(CD4+/CD8+)比值的最佳截断值为-0.623。升高组患者伤后21 d生存率低于降低组(χ²=26.20,P<0.05)。伤后7 d IL-6 Cox模型在伤后7、14、20 d的AUC为71.71%(95%CI 66.03%~77.39%)、61.38%(95%CI 55.42%~67.33%)、61.38%(95%CI 55.42%~67.33%),均高于ΔIL-6 Cox模型的59.38%(95%CI 50.62%~68.14%)、56.70%(95%CI 50.01%~63.38%)、56.70%(95%CI 50.01%~63.38%),Δ(CD4+/CD8+)比值Cox模型的64.92%(95%CI 57.53%~72.31%)、57.19%(95%CI 50.65%~63.72%)、57.19%(95%CI 50.65%~63.72%),基线Cox模型的70.02%(95%CI 63.39%~76.66%)、59.71%(95%CI 53.43%~66.00%)、59.71%(95%CI 53.43%~66.00%),以及动态Cox模型的65.51%(95%CI 58.19%~72.83%)、57.12%(95%CI 50.58%~63.66%)、57.12%(95%CI 50.58%~63.66%)。  结论  严重烧伤患者伤后IL-6和CD4⁺/CD8⁺比值呈动态变化,死亡组患者早期炎症反应更强、免疫抑制更重。伤后7 d IL-6水平对21 d死亡风险有一定预测价值。

     

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  • 图  1  760例严重烧伤患者的Kaplan–Meier总体生存曲线

    注:阴影区域表示95%CI

    图  2  756例严重烧伤患者各指标预测21 d死亡风险的受试者工作特征曲线

    图  3  2组严重烧伤患者的Kaplan-Meier生存曲线(样本数为756)

    Table  1.   存活组与死亡组严重烧伤患者临床资料比较

    组别例数年龄(岁,x¯±s)性别(例)烧伤总面积(%TBSA,x¯±s)Ⅲ度烧伤面积(%TBSA,M(Q1,Q3))Ⅱ度烧伤面积(%TBSA,x¯±s)烧伤指数(M(Q1,Q3))
    男女
    存活组62140±1446715441±138(0,22)29±1325(17,34)
    死亡组13940±111063350±1915(5,32)26±1633(24,46)
    统计值t=0.31χ²=0.08t=6.73Z=5.89t=1.93Z=7.45
    P值0.7580.775<0.001<0.0010.054<0.001
    注:ΔIL-6、Δ(CD4⁺/CD8⁺)比值为伤后7 d的IL-6、CD4⁺/CD8⁺比值与伤后1 d对应值的差值;APACHEⅡ为急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分系统Ⅱ;慢性病包括高血压、糖尿病、慢性心肺疾病等
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  2.   753例严重烧伤患者各指标预测21 d死亡风险的基线Cox比例风险回归模型分析结果

    变量VIFHR95%CIP值
    IL-6(pg/mL)1.121.001.00~1.010.053
    CD4+/CD8+比值1.210.550.29~1.050.070
    年龄(岁)1.081.010.99~1.020.370
    性别1.050.920.66~1.300.642
    烧伤指数1.341.021.01~1.03<0.001
    注:IL-6、CD4+/CD8+比值均为患者伤后1 d的检测值;VIF为方差膨胀因子
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  3.   746例严重烧伤患者各指标预测21 d死亡风险的动态Cox比例风险回归模型分析结果

    变量VIFHR95%CIP值
    ΔIL-6(pg/mL)1.150.9990.996~1.0020.656
    Δ(CD4+/CD8+)比值1.181.4070.988~2.0030.058
    年龄(岁)1.091.0010.987~1.0150.894
    性别1.060.9470.674~1.3320.756
    烧伤指数1.321.0231.015~1.030<0.001
    注:ΔIL-6、Δ(CD4+/CD8+)比值伤后7 d的IL-6、CD4⁺/CD8⁺比值与伤后1 d对应值的差值;VIF为方差膨胀因子
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  4.   不同Cox比例风险回归模型的时间依赖ROC分析[AUC(95%CI)]

    模型种类样本量伤后7 d伤后14 d伤后20 d
    基线Cox比例风险回归模型75370.02(63.39~76.66)59.71(53.43~66.00)59.71(53.43~66.00)
    伤后7 d的IL-6 Cox比例风险回归模型76071.71(66.03~77.39)61.38(55.42~67.33)61.38(55.42~67.33)
    ΔIL-6 Cox比例风险回归模型74659.38(50.62~68.14)56.70(50.01~63.38)56.70(50.01~63.38)
    Δ(CD4+/CD8+)比值Cox比例风险回归模型74664.92(57.53~72.31)57.19(50.65~63.72)57.19(50.65~63.72)
    动态Cox比例风险回归模型74665.51(58.19~72.83)57.12(50.58~63.66)57.12(50.58~63.66)
    注:各模型校正变量均为年龄、性别及烧伤指数;5种模型的事件数分别为137、139、136、136、136
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2025-11-21
  • 网络出版日期:  2026-11-02

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