Volume 39 Issue 9
Sep.  2023
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Chen HY,Xin GH.Research advances on prognosis-related forecasting models for burn patients[J].Chin J Burns Wounds,2023,39(9):891-895.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20221022-00468.
Citation: Chen HY,Xin GH.Research advances on prognosis-related forecasting models for burn patients[J].Chin J Burns Wounds,2023,39(9):891-895.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20221022-00468.

Research advances on prognosis-related forecasting models for burn patients

doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20221022-00468
Funds:

Science and Technology Plan of Jiangxi Provincial Health and Wellness Commission 20185099, 20203216

More Information
  • Corresponding author: Xin Guohua, Email: xinguoh@126.com
  • Received Date: 2022-10-22
  • The prognosis-related forecasting model for burn patients was first proposed in 1961, and the establishment of the models not only plays an important role in assessing the severity of burns and predicting fatality rate, but also has a positive implication for improving treatment strategies of patients. The early prognosis-related forecasting models for burn patients are mainly based on factors including patients' age and burn area, and as the research goes on, the prognostic forecasting models are constantly updated and improved. There are new insights provided by an increasing number of scholars. This article summarizes the brief history of development of prognosis-related forecasting models for burn patients, the progress of some prognosis-related forecasting models for burn patients at home and abroad, and the related risk factors, with the aim of providing some references for the selection of appropriate forecasting models in clinic.

     

  • loading
  • [1]
    SheppardNN,Hemington-GorseS,ShelleyOP,et al.Prognostic scoring systems in burns: a review[J].Burns,2011,37(8):1288-1295.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2011.07.017.
    [2]
    TobiasenJ,HiebertJM,EdlichRF.The abbreviated burn severity index[J].Ann Emerg Med,1982,11(5):260-262.DOI: 10.1016/s0196-0644(82)80096-6.
    [3]
    RyanCM,SchoenfeldDA,ThorpeWP,et al.Objective estimates of the probability of death from burn injuries[J].N Engl J Med,1998,338(6):362-366.DOI: 10.1056/NEJM199802053380604.
    [4]
    MoreauAR,WestfallPH,CancioLC,et al.Development and validation of an age-risk score for mortality predication after thermal injury[J].J Trauma,2005,58(5):967-972.DOI: 10.1097/01.ta.0000162729.24548.00.
    [5]
    GomezM,WongDT,StewartTE,et al.The FLAMES score accurately predicts mortality risk in burn patients[J].J Trauma,2008,65(3):636-645.DOI: 10.1097/TA.0b013e3181840c6d.
    [6]
    The Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury Study Group.Development and validation of a model for prediction of mortality in patients with acute burn injury[J].Br J Surg,2009,96(1):111-117.DOI: 10.1002/bjs.6329.
    [7]
    OslerT,GlanceLG,HosmerDW.Simplified estimates of the probability of death after burn injuries: extending and updating the baux score[J].J Trauma,2010,68(3):690-697.DOI: 10.1097/TA.0b013e3181c453b3.
    [8]
    DavisJS,PrescottAT,VarasRP,et al.A new algorithm to allow early prediction of mortality in elderly burn patients[J].Burns,2012,38(8):1114-1118.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2012.08.018.
    [9]
    MooreEC,PilcherDV,BaileyMJ,et al.The burns evaluation and mortality study (BEAMS): predicting deaths in Australian and New Zealand burn patients admitted to intensive care with burns[J].J Trauma Acute Care Surg,2013,75(2):298-303.DOI: 10.1097/TA.0b013e318295409d.
    [10]
    CassidyJT,PhillipsM,FatovichD,et al.Developing a burn injury severity score (BISS): adding age and total body surface area burned to the injury severity score (ISS) improves mortality concordance[J].Burns,2014,40(5):805-813.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2013.10.010.
    [11]
    StylianouN,BuchanI,DunnKW.A model of British in-hospital mortality among burns patients[J].Burns,2014,40(7):1316-1321.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2014.04.013.
    [12]
    TaylorSL,LawlessM,CurriT,et al.Predicting mortality from burns: the need for age-group specific models[J].Burns,2014,40(6):1106-1115.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2014.03.010.
    [13]
    HuangYH, ZhangL, LianG, et al. A novel mathematical model to predict prognosis of burnt patients based on logistic regression and support vector machine[J]. Burns,2016,42(2):291-299.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2015.08.009.
    [14]
    KimY,KymD,HurJ,et al.Development of a risk prediction model (Hangang) and comparison with clinical severity scores in burn patients[J].PLoS One,2019,14(2):e0211075.DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211075.
    [15]
    樊钧豪,孙义方,伍国胜,等.基于改良全身炎症反应综合征评分建立的联合预测模型对大面积烧伤患者入院早期死亡风险的预测价值[J].中华烧伤杂志,2020,36(1):42-47.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1009-2587.2020.01.008.
    [16]
    ZhouJY, LiN, TanJL, et al. Validation of four burn-specific prognostic models in a cohort of 9625 cases, and a novel model for prediction of mortality in burn patients[J]. Burns,2020,46(7):1533-1539.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2019.12.014.
    [17]
    BartelsP,ThammOC,ElrodJ,et al.The ABSI is dead, long live the ABSI-reliable prediction of survival in burns with a modified Abbreviated Burn Severity Index[J].Burns,2020,46(6):1272-1279.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2020.05.003.
    [18]
    曾庆玲,王庆梅,陶利菊,等.特重度烧伤患者死亡风险列线图预测模型的建立及预测价值[J].中华烧伤杂志,2020,36(9):845-852.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501120-20190620-00280.
    [19]
    YamamotoR,ShibusawaT,AikawaN,et al.Modified abbreviated burn severity index as a predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with inhalation injury: development and validation using independent cohorts[J].Surg Today,2021,51(2):242-249.DOI: 10.1007/s00595-020-02085-5.
    [20]
    BagheriM,FuchsPC,LeferingR,et al.The BUrn Mortality Prediction (BUMP) score-an improved mortality prediction score based on data of the German burn registry[J].Burns,2023,49(1):110-119.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2022.02.007.
    [21]
    HerlianitaR,PurwantoE,WahyuningsihI,et al.Clinical outcome and comparison of burn injury scoring systems in burn patient in Indonesia[J].Afr J Emerg Med,2021,11(3):331-334.DOI: 10.1016/j.afjem.2021.04.005.
    [22]
    UsmaniA,PipalDK,BaglaH,et al.Prediction of mortality in acute thermal burn patients using the abbreviated burn severity index score: a single-center experience[J].Cureus,2022,14(6):e26161.DOI: 10.7759/cureus.26161.
    [23]
    谢志勤,郭光华,杨珍,等.三种评分预测严重烧伤患者死亡风险的对比研究[J].中华烧伤与创面修复杂志,2022,38(2):184-189.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501120-20201113-00473.
    [24]
    KnausWA,ZimmermanJE,WagnerDP,et al.APACHE-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation: a physiologically based classification system[J].Crit Care Med,1981,9(8):591-597.DOI: 10.1097/00003246-198108000-00008.
    [25]
    de CarvalhoVF, PaggiaroAO, GoldnerA, et al. Retrospective evaluation of the accuracy of five different severity scores to predict the mortality in burns patients[J/OL]. J Burn Care Res,2021:irab057(2021-04-21)[2022-10-22]. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33882125/.DOI:10.1093/jbcr/irab057. [published online ahead of print].
    [26]
    ChakrabortyRK, BurnsB. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome[M]. San Francisco: StatPearls Publishing, 2023.
    [27]
    HassanZ,BurhamahW,AlabdulmuhsenS,et al.The analysis and accuracy of mortality prediction scores in burn patients admitted to the intensive care burn unit (ICBU)[J].Ann Med Surg (Lond),2021,65:102249.DOI: 10.1016/j.amsu.2021.102249.
    [28]
    LamNN,HungNT,DucNM.Prognosis value of revised Baux score among burn patients in developing country[J].Int J Burns Trauma,2021,11(3):197-201.
    [29]
    LamNN,MinhNTN.Risk factors for death and prognosis value of revised Baux score for burn patients with inhalation injury[J].Ann Burns Fire Disasters,2022,35(1):41-45.
    [30]
    KarimiH,MotevalianSA,RabbaniA,et al.Prediction of mortality in pediatric burn injuries: R-Baux score to be applied in children (Pediatrics-Baux score)[J].Iran J Pediatr,2013,23(2):165-170.
    [31]
    ChengWF,ShenCA,ZhaoDX,et al.The epidemiology and prognosis of patients with massive burns: a multicenter study of 2483 cases[J].Burns,2019,45(3):705-716.DOI: 10.1016/j.burns.2018.08.008.
    [32]
    QuYR,LiuT,ChaiJK,et al.Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 471 elderly burn patients in China: a burn center-based study[J].J Burn Care Res,2023,44(4):869-879.DOI: 10.1093/jbcr/irac190.
    [33]
    HanDW,WeiY,LiYC,et al.Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 5,569 pediatric burns in central China from 2013 to 2019[J].Front Public Health,2022,10:751615.DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.751615.
    [34]
    张慧君,赵筱卓,王成,等.223例成人严重烧伤住院患者的流行病学调查[J].中国医刊,2022,57(2):184-190.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-1070.2022.02.019.
    [35]
    YazıcıH,UçarAD,NamdaroğluO,et al.Mortality prediction models for severe burn patients: which one is the best?[J].Ulus Travma Acil Cerrahi Derg,2022,28(6):790-795.DOI: 10.14744/tjtes.2021.29540.
    [36]
    BelbaMK,DedaLN,BelbaGP.Measurements of injury-related outcomes: statistical and analytical data from Albania[J].Ann Burns Fire Disasters,2021,34(4):301-311.
    [37]
    中国老年医学学会烧创伤分会. 吸入性损伤临床诊疗全国专家共识(2018版)[J]. 中华烧伤杂志,2018,34(11): 770-775. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1009-2587.2018.11.010.
    [38]
    BrandãoC,MeirelesR,BritoI,et al.The role of comorbidities on outcome prediction in acute burn patients[J].Ann Burns Fire Disasters,2021,34(4):323-333.
    [39]
    张灿,张均辉,张东霞,等.252例严重烧伤患者心肌损伤情况的回顾性研究[J].中华烧伤杂志,2016,32(5):260-265.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1009-2587.2016.05.002.
    [40]
    YouB, YangZC, ZhangYL, et al. Late-onset acute kidney injury is a poor prognostic sign for severe burn patients[J]. Front Surg,2022,9:842999.DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2022.842999.
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article views (254) PDF downloads(31) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return