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Volume 42 Issue 4
Apr.  2026
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Article Navigation >  CHINESE JOURNAL OF BURNS AND WOUNDS  > 2026  >  42(4): 373-382
Wang Y,Zhao YH,Liu J,et al.Characteristics analysis and trend projection of burn disease burden among middle-aged and elderly population in China based on the GBD 2021 database[J].Chin J Burns Wounds,2026,42(4):373-382.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20250710-00296.
Citation: Wang Y,Zhao YH,Liu J,et al.Characteristics analysis and trend projection of burn disease burden among middle-aged and elderly population in China based on the GBD 2021 database[J].Chin J Burns Wounds,2026,42(4):373-382.DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20250710-00296.
shu

Characteristics analysis and trend projection of burn disease burden among middle-aged and elderly population in China based on the GBD 2021 database

doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501225-20250710-00296
  • 1.

    Department of Medical Aesthetics, Tangshan Workers' Hospital, Tangshan 063000, China

  • 2.

    First Department of Burns and Plastic Surgery, Tangshan Workers' Hospital, Tangshan 063000, China

  • 3.

    Department of Traumatic Surgery, Tangshan Central Hospital, Tangshan 063006, China

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    Abstract
  •   Objective  To analyze the characteristics of burn disease (hereinafter referred to as "this type of disease") burden among Chinese middle-aged and elderly population (≥55 years) based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database and to project its trends.  Methods  This study was a secondary study based on public databases. Core indicators of this type of disease in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 database, including the incident cases, incidence, deaths, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), DALY rate, and their standardized rates. Analyses were conducted using age-period-cohort model, Joinpoint regression model, and Das Gupta decomposition analysis. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was constructed to project the burden trends of this type of disease in China in 2030.  Results  In 2021, the total incident cases, deaths, and DALYs of this type of disease in China were 9.55 (7.23-12.76)×10⁴, 7 579 (5 525-9 184), and 22.01 (16.94-28.05)×10⁴, respectively, all higher than 4.21 (3.05-5.70)×10⁴, 5 550 (4 056-6 454), and 16.92 (13.78-20.16)×10⁴ in 1990. The total incidence, mortality, DALY rate, and standardized DALY rate in 2021 were 25.22 (19.10-33.69)×10-5, 2.00 (1.46-2.42)×10-5, 58.11 (44.73-74.03)×10-5, and 33.64 (27.01-41.78)×10-5, respectively, all lower than 29.37 (21.29-39.75)×10-5, 3.87 (2.83-4.50)×10-5, 117.95 (96.03-140.53)×10-5, and 135.58 (109.77-158.36)×10-5 in 1990. Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the total standardized incidence, standardized mortality, and standardized DALY rate of this type of disease in China decreased significantly from 1990 to 2021, with average annual percent changes of -0.33%, -3.97%, and -4.83%, respectively (P<0.05). Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that, compared with the general population, across age groups of 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, 90-94, and ≥95 years, the incidence risk of this type of disease in China presented significant changes (with RR (95% CI) of 1.054 (1.012-1.099), 0.949 (0.919-0.979), 0.800 (0.783-0.818), 0.724 (0.714-0.735), 0.713 (0.703-0.722), 0.916 (0.899-0.934), 1.165 (1.133-1.199), 1.361 (1.305-1.419), and 1.666 (1.559-1.780), respectively, P<0.05), and the mortality risk of this type of disease changed significantly (with RR (95% CI) of 0.208 (0.198-0.218), 0.229 (0.220-0.239), 0.331 (0.320-0.343), 0.551 (0.536-0.566), 0.897 (0.875-0.920), 1.778 (1.732-1.826), 3.222 (3.118-3.330), 4.653 (4.447-4.868), and 4.811 (4.451-5.201), respectively, P<0.05); the incidence risk of this type of disease peaked and changed significantly during 2020-2021 (with RR (95% CI) of 1.034 (1.002-1.069), P<0.05), and the mortality risk of this type of disease changed significantly during the time periods of 1990-1994, 1995-1999, 2005-2009, 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2021 (with RR (95% CI) of 1.195 (1.153-1.239), 1.037 (1.005-1.070), 1.031 (1.007-1.055), 0.965 (0.942-0.989), 0.896 (0.871-0.922), and 0.920 (0.888-0.954), respectively, P<0.05); the incidence risk of this type of disease changed significantly during the birth cohorts of 1915-1919, 1920-1924, 1925-1929, 1930-1934, 1935-1939, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969 (with RR (95% CI) of 1.102 (1.031-1.178), 1.113 (1.053-1.176), 1.102 (1.055-1.152), 1.081 (1.046-1.118), 1.051 (1.027-1.076), 0.977 (0.969-0.986), 0.928 (0.916-0.940), 0.896 (0.877-0.916), 0.891 (0.863-0.920), and 0.893 (0.855-0.933), respectively, P<0.05), and the mortality risk of this type of disease changed significantly during the birth cohorts of 1895-1899, 1900-1904, 1905-1909, 1910-1914, 1915-1919, 1920-1924, 1925-1929, 1930-1934, 1935-1939, 1940-1944, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969 (with RR (95% CI) of 1.751 (1.273-2.411), 1.650 (1.434-1.900), 1.542 (1.400-1.698), 1.519 (1.404-1.643), 1.460 (1.366-1.561), 1.330 (1.256-1.408), 1.195 (1.139-1.253), 1.068 (1.027-1.112), 0.967 (0.936-0.999), 0.863 (0.836-0.890), 0.765 (0.740-0.792), 0.677 (0.651-0.703), 0.590 (0.563-0.619), 0.522 (0.489-0.556), and 0.448 (0.406-0.494), respectively, P<0.05). Das Gupta decomposition analysis indicated that population growth was the core factor contributing to the increase in incident cases of this type of disease in China (with total contribution rate of 98.15%), and epidemiological changes were the main driving force behind the reduction in deaths of this type of disease in China (with total contribution rate of 170.02%). Autoregressive integrated moving average model projections suggested that by 2030, the incident cases of this type of disease in China would rise to 13.35 (10.58-16.12)×10⁴, deaths would stabilize at 7 642 (6 076-9 208), and DALYs would increase to 23.71 (20.86-26.55)×10⁴; meanwhile, the incidence would drop to 23.59 (21.97-25.20)×10-5, mortality would drop to 1.47 (0.71-2.23)×10-5, and DALY rate would drop to 41.17 (28.39-53.95)×10-5.  Conclusions  The absolute burden of this type of disease in China from 1990 to 2021 has increased, while the incidence, mortality, and DALY rate have decreased. Population growth and epidemiological changes have driven the rise in incident cases and the decline in deaths, respectively. This type of disease burden in China is expected to keep growing in the future.

     

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